A game-theoretic methodology integrating weapon and C2 contribution to force effectiveness

Abstract

The effect of C2 on force effectiveness is given substantial attention over the last decades. However, analysts are still struggling to reflect this effect. This paper presents a methodology that reflects the contribution of decision-making in an analytically well-founded way, thus contributing to the understanding of the area. Battle is modelled as a hierarchy of two-player zero-sum games that reflects the hierarchic decision-making in a hierarchic organisation. In each game, operational concepts and battle capabilities determine each side's alternative actions, and C2 capabilities determine the order in which decisions and sub-decisions are to be made. The strength of game theory is used to define the game value as the measure of effectiveness. Finally, a data gathering procedure is suggested, exploiting the rigidity of organisational knowledge. The presented methodology accounts for all actions and strategies that can be planned, whereas a second step will account for situations that can not be planned for.