Metoderammeverk for analyse av kriseberedskap og lavintensitetskonflikter illustrert ved en anvendelse på oljevernberedskap

Abstract

This report describes a mulimethdolgy for analyzing complex decision problems where there is substantial uncertainty. For each step in the analysis process alternative methods are mentioned. The best choice or composition of methods will depend on the actual case. The multimethodology covers the following phases of a complex problem analysis: Problem structuring, scenario planning, MCDA and consequence analysis. A simplified case study on combating oil pollution from oil tankers is performed to illustrate the multimethodology. This report is part of a series of surveys of OA methods conducted by project GOAL at FFI.