Modellgrunnlag for hærstrukturanalyser - sluttrapport for prosjekt 734 OPKOLA

Abstract

The Norwegian Army has adopted a manoeuvre oriented operational doctrine. It was recognised that FFI had to modernise its inventory of land model-tools, in order to study land warfare under the new doctrine. This is the final report of the FFI-project 734, with the purpose of establishing a hierarchy of analysing tools for force structure analyses. An analysis method is outlined, based on hierarchical games. It includes non-linear optimisation as a screening method for developing force structure alternatives, which is to be analysed in more depth with simulations and war-gaming. A hierarchy of analysis-tools supporting this method is described. The tools have successfully been applied in the recent Force Structure Study (FA00). The success is partly due to increased speed in the analysis of the sub-problems, like the analysis of battalion sized combat situations. It is argued that the increased speed is the result of a combination of analyst competence and knowledge, combined with model and tools carefully designed, balancing simplicity of use and accuracy of results. The hierarchy of model-tools are now in use, and will be further developed in a follow-up project at FFI.