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dc.contributorDahl, Fredrik Andreasen_GB
dc.date.accessioned2018-10-30T13:38:16Z
dc.date.available2018-10-30T13:38:16Z
dc.date.issued2005
dc.identifier1004
dc.identifier.isbn82-464-0942-5en_GB
dc.identifier.other2005/01676
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12242/1826
dc.description.abstractThis report gives a Bayesian analysis of operating cost escalation in the Norwegian Armed Forces. The amount of relevant data is limited to nine data points from the time period 1994-2002. We present a statistical model of an underlying cost escalation, with random noise both in the actual cost and the observation of it. Through discussions with experts in the field, we have constructed prior distributions for these three parameters (cost escalation, process noise and observation noise). We have then computed the posterior distribution by methods of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and Kalman filtering. The model has been evaluated by the use of posterior predictive p-values, and found to fit the data sufficiently well. The analysis gives a 95% credibility interval of (0.2% - 4.5%) for the operating cost escalation parameter.en_GB
dc.language.isonoben_GB
dc.titleDriftskostnadsvekst estimert med Bayesianske metoderen_GB
dc.subject.keywordDriftsøkonomien_GB
dc.subject.keywordStatistikken_GB
dc.source.issue2005/01676en_GB
dc.source.pagenumber16en_GB


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