Observation modelling and detection probability for space-based AIS reception - extended observation area

Abstract

This report evaluates the performance with respect to ship detection probability for a space-based AIS system. The report continues the work of a previous report that studied the ship detection probability for space-based AIS for swath widths up to 800 nm. This report extends the analyses to include also fields of view to the horizon (2880 nm wide swath). An observation model for the space-based AIS system has been established, and software for the simulations has been developed in Matlab. Analytical expressions for the ship detection probability have also been derived. The analyses show that a single AIS sensor in Low Earth Orbit could handle up to 900 ships within the field of view with a ship detection probability of better than 99%. A global constellation of AIS sensors could handle up to 2000 ships with an update rate of twice per day.