Okkupasjon for demokrati : krigsmål og fredsutsikter i Afghanistan og Irak

Abstract

The report is an analysis of the viability of the war aims for intervention in Afghanistan from 2001 and for the occupation of Iraq from 2003. Based on evidence derived from former experiences with forced regime change, the prospects for democratic stability in these countries are bleak. This is due to a combination of local structures at odds with conditions for democratic rule, and the insufficient employment of manpower and resources required for long-term state formation. The most likely outcomes are unstable hybrid regimes with endemic insurgencies and uncontained violence. With the reformed posture of Norwegian defence forces – scaled for participation in international operations – the meagre prospects for successful crisis management in Afghanistan and Iraq have become a much more immediate concern for Norwegian military forces.