Hvilke utfordringer skal Forsvaret dimensjoneres mot : vekting av scenarier med flermålsanalyse

Abstract

A crucial problem in defence planning is the distinction between challenges that are vital to defend against and challenges that are of lesser importance. In terms of scenario based analytical approaches, this problem mainly concerns sorting out which scenarios that should determine future force structures. This paper investigates possible approaches to ranking scenarios. Firstly, methodological problems related to risk analysis are discussed. As an alternative approach, multi-criteria analysis is considered. The basic idea of this approach is to link force structure capacities to overarching political goals. To enable such links, a model defining military tasks as well as political goals is developed. Involvement by decision makers plays a crucial role in terms of setting priorities to the tasks and the goals defined in the model. The paper is not conclusive as to the applicability of this approach. However, it seems likely that multi-criteria analysis may yield important insights into the complexities of defence planning, thus adding great value to defence planning processes.