Blindgjengerfaren i Hjerkinn skytefelt : en statistisk analyse

Abstract

Hjerkinn Firing Range is in the process of being abandoned, and will in a few years be opened for unrestricted public access. However, the area will for the foreseeable future be contaminated with unexploded ordnance that may pose a certain risk for hikers and hunters in the area. There exists fairly accurate data concerning the firing activity in the range. Annual records have been made about the types of ammunition fired, the location of the firing and the amount being fired. Likewise, records from annual explosive ordnance disposal campaigns are available. Based on a rough estimate of the dud rate for each type of ammunition, the total number of unexploded ordnance (UXO) can be estimated. From estimates of the expected numbers of hikers using the range in the future, the number of interactions between a person and a UXO can be estimated. The probability of an accident given that such an interaction takes place, has been estimated based on the number of musk oxes pasturing in the area during the last few decades. It seems quite certain that no musk ox has ever triggered a UXO even though a high number of interactions must have taken place. It can thus be stated that the danger of walking around in the range does not pose a risk level significantly higher than other ambient risks in the society.