Irak og terrortrusselen - eit oversyn over terrorgrupper med tilknyting til det irakiske regimet

Abstract

The present report assesses the terrorist threats emanating from the current conflict in Iraq, focusing on terrorist organisations with past and/or present links to the Iraqi regime. Over the years, Bagdad has supported a variety of terrorist groups with a global reach. Although some of these organisations are currently seen as inactive, such as the Abu Nidal-organisation, some of them may be reactivated and utilised in an Iraqi campaign against international targets should the regime wish to do so. Available open source information about increased Iraqi intelligence activities overseas may suggest that Iraqi motivations for an international terrorist campaign exist. The report also studies the alleged relationship between Iraq and the al-Qaida-network. Despite many claims to the contrary, the Iraqi regime has most probably been in contact with and co-operated with a number of radical Islamist organisations, including al-Qaida and several al-Qaida-affiliated organisations. There are strong indications of co-operation in a number of fields, based on a convergence of interest in confronting and punishing the United States. The accepted wisdom that ideological hostility has prevented any meaningful contacts seems unfounded. The report also discusses the Iraqi-based Iranian opposistion movement Mujahidin al-Khalq and warns that this large and well-armed group may present a considerable terrorist threat in the future. Armed pro-Iranian Iraqi opposition groups, such as the SCIRI and al-Da‘wa al-Islamiyya, may also become a source of serious instability in a future post-Saddam Iraq.