Terror mot transport : en revurdering av terrortrusselen mot transportrelaterte mål i lys av 11. september

Abstract

This short study assesses the terrorism threat against transport related targets in Norway. The first part of the report looks at the terrorism threat in Norway and the changing threat environment emanating from the growing influence of radical Islamist support networks in Europe. The second part of the study discusses terrorist target selection strategies, based on a previous FFI study of patterns of terrorism against transport related targets, using the Iterate database for the period 1990-2000. The final and major part of this report gives an overview of attacks, uncovered plots, reported and alleged plans attributed to the al-Qaida network or its affiliated groups against transport-related targets. An assessment of the new dimensions in terrorism threat scenarios is offered. The main argument made is that a wider range of mass casualty attacks with conventional means appears more likely today than previously. The possible use of transportation vehicles and cargo as terrorist weapons in new and innovative manners to cause mass fatalities warrants particular attention.