Er sivil infrastruktur sannsynlege mål for terrorgrupper i fredstid? : nokre førebelse konklusjonar om terrorisme som tryggingspolitisk utfordring i Norge

Abstract

The report discusses terrorism as a security policy challenge in Norway. It gives a broad survey of recent trends in terrorism and briefly discusses the potential for weapons of mass destruction terrorism. The report also touches upon the possible relationship between terrorism and participation in peace support operations, and the potential of sabotage by terrorist groups against the petroleum sector. In light of the recent debate on emerging threats associated with critical infrastructure and information systems, this report surveys the debate on cyberterrorism threats against critical infrastructure. It further discusses to what extent civilian infrastructure has been targeted by terrorist groups in the past. Based on a number of statistical surveys of terrorist attacks, the report concludes that civilian infrastructure has rarely been targeted by terrorist groups. Although the potential for attacks against civilian infrastructure cannot be excluded, such sabotage attacks are generally much more likely in an internal civil war situation, than in peace time. The report concludes by recommending more attention to preventing mass casualty terrorism, which has become somewhat more prevalent over the two past decades.