En vurdering av Indias og Pakistans kjernevåpenprogrammer
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This summary report presents the nuclear weapons programmes in India and Pakistan as well as the underlying reasons for this regional nuclear race. It is estimated that the two countries have produced sufficient quantities of weapons grade uranium and plutonium for 60–120 nuclear weapons and 45–85 nuclear weapons, respectively. The actual nuclear stockpiles are most likely smaller, and they are estimated at 30–40 nuclear weapons and 30-65 nuclear weapons, respectively. Both countries have a large nuclear infrastructure, but India is considered to be the most sophisticated of the two countries as far as nuclear engineering and nuclear weapons technology go. There are no indications that India has used its ten non-safeguarded nuclear power plant reactors in the production of weapons grade plutonium. However, if they have been used for this purpose, the total amount of plutonium produced from them is limited to at most 2000–2500 kg, or about 400 nuclear weapons, by the amounts of nuclear fuel available. It is noted that Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine apparently permits a nuclear response to a conventional attack, while India’s nuclear doctrine contains a strictly no-first-use policy. This may be explained by Pakistan’s military inferiority to India in a conventional war.