Scenario modelling with morphological analysis

Abstract

Scenarios can serve as points of reference in the future for decisions that we have to make today. Morphological analysis provides a structured method for ensuring consistency and relevance in scenario development. This paper outlines a method for characterizing the entire solution space of future outcomes in a given subject field, and suggests a process for classification of an all-encompassing and mutually exclusive set of scenario classes. The method is illustrated with an example case, taken from Norwegian defense planning, of establishing a scenario set that encompasses all external security challenges to Norway as a security actor. Four parameters are defined – Actor, Goal, Method and Means. Each parameter is defined in terms of an exhaustive set of possible states or values. A Cross Consistency Assessment is conducted to exclude solutions deemed to be impossible on either purely logical grounds (internal consistency) or based on real world assessments (external consistency). Six scenario classes are defined: Strategic Attack, Limited Attack, Coercive Diplomacy, Terrorist Attack, Criminality and Military Peace-time Operations.