Framtiden for russisk verneplikt

Abstract

Russia is currently implementing the most comprehensive reform of its Armed Forces since the 1920s – «the Serdiukov reforms». Conscription will be maintained at the same time as important parts of the Armed Forces will be manned by enlisted personnel. The conscription system is under pressure, however. The number of draftable 18-year-olds will steadily decrease until 2017. In addition, the health of conscripts has been deteriorating in post-Soviet times, and there is little to indicate improvement. Contingents of conscripts in the years ahead will be considerably smaller than in 2009, when 575,000 were drafted, the largest number in 15 years. The current reserve of older conscripts will soon be spent. It is therefore unlikely that Russia will be able to maintain an army of one million, which is the ambition of the Serdiukov reforms. There is little to suggest that the decrease in the number of conscripts can be compensated by enlisted personnel. Conscription is likely to be upheld at any rate, primarily because abolishment would dramatically reduce the possibilities of recruiting professionals. The article suggests that the most important measure by which to make young men less unwilling to serve would be a comprehensive and targeted policy to reduce hazing.