The Islamic state after the caliphate

Abstract

Following the Islamic State loss of most of its territorial control and the fall of its self-declared Caliphate, many have warned that it is too early to declare that the group is defeated. The group has previously been able to come spectacularly back from defeat. However, this article will argue that while the Islamic State is roughly following the same strategy as last time when it was also weakened, it was specific historical circumstances that then enabled the dramatic rise of the Islamic State. The article will also argue that in order to be successful, the group is dependent on conflicts and root causes that exist independently of the group, but which it can exploit.